Do we pay duty?

Do we pay duty?

In a totally interconnected global economy, the war of duties between the US and China is a big problem for Italian companies too. Or maybe not.

A theme complex and with multiple readings. A first point could be that if the two countries will have to replace the goods that were previously exchanged with those from third countries, it could potentially generate some advantages for some countries.

According to estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the European Union could derive more benefits than others from this situation by managing to intercept a total of 70 billion dollars of bilateral trade between China and the United States (50 billion from the States United States and 20 from China).

Of course, there are readings that highlight the most critical scenarios on the horizon, tying them mostly to globalization and a domino effect that would lead to a spiral that economic analysts consider very worrying.

In fact, as the International Monetary Fund maintains, we would risk that the persistence of US-China tension leads to a reduction in world growth for 2019-2020 around 0.5% with devastating impacts from the point of view of price growth, of the brake to the circulation of goods and employment on a global level.

The hope is therefore that Trump and Xi Jinping find a reasonable agreement to bring the situation back to the level of business as usual.